SEBI flags opinion trading: are prediction platforms a new-age gamble?
India is witnessing a sharp rise in platforms that allow users to earn money by predicting future events. Called “opinion trading” platforms, these apps enable people to place monetary wagers on outcomes such as sports results, political developments, or even weather changes. However, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has issued a strong warning, flagging these platforms for their speculative nature and lack of regulatory oversight.
Despite SEBI’s caution, some industry voices see potential. iGaming expert George John in an exclusive conversation with SiGMA News said, “If platforms improve trust and transparency, opinion trading could evolve into a fintech-gaming hybrid-similar to how fantasy sports reshaped digital engagement.”
In contrast, Sohil Jain, Senior Executive – Qualified Financial Advisor, criticised the format, Let’s call it what it is – gambling with better marketing. These platforms cleverly disguise betting as “trading” by co-opting financial terminology, but the fundamentals remain unchanged: you’re wagering on uncertain outcomes with no underlying asset creation.
What are opinion trading platforms?
Opinion trading platforms allow users to place monetary predictions on binary outcomesyes or no questionsbased on real-world events like sports, elections, or weather. For example, a platform may ask, Will Shubman Gill be Indias captain in Tests for the England Series 2025? Users earn cash if their predictions are correct.
These platforms often use terms like profits, stop-loss, and trading to create the appearance of investment, but no underlying financial assets are involved. Popular apps include Real11, MPL Opinio, Sportsbaazi, and Probo.
Jain while talking to SiGMA News said, True investments – even alternative ones – involve ownership of something that can generate value over time. When you’re predicting cricket scores or election results, you’re not investing; you’re placing bets. The slick interfaces and financial jargon don’t change this reality.
How they work
Users join contests and answer prediction-based questions. There are various difficulty levels and prize tiers to drive more participation. Payments are made using UPI, Paytm, or Amazon Pay.
Although platforms often carry disclaimers such as 바카라 responsibly and restrict access to those 18 and younger, the core experience is speculative.
According to the National Initiative for Consumer Interest (NICI), these platforms have attracted over 5 crore users and handled more than ?50,000 crore ($5.85 billion) in annual transaction volume. Projected revenues for 2024C25 are ?1,000 crore ($117 million).
While talking about economic implications, Jain said, Beyond the numbers, three specific concerns stand out: minimal consumer protection against manipulation, significant tax compliance ambiguities, and the normalisation of unregulated financial activity at scale. History shows that when unregulated financial bubbles eventually burst, they can undermine trust in legitimate financial systems too. This isn’t innovation, it’s a shadow financial system operating without proper safeguards.
SEBI’s raises red flag
On 29 April, stating that these platforms are neither recognised stock exchanges nor registered under securities law. The advisory noted that such contracts may resemble derivatives, which would violate the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
Such platforms are liable to face action for violation in that case. Recognised stock exchanges are advised to initiate appropriate action for such violations. Even in this case none of the investor protection mechanisms will be available, the regulator said.
Legal loopholes and grey areas
Currently, there is no specific law that directly governs opinion trading platforms. This has allowed them to operate in a grey area, often using offshore structures to avoid domestic regulations.
Corporate lawyer Supreme Waskar explained to SiGMA News, SEBIs warning is timely, but a warning by itself is not sufficient without enforceable legal action or regulatory backing, such advisories often go unheeded, particularly when the platforms are structured to operate in grey areas or from offshore jurisdictions.”
He added, There is currently no licensing or regulatory framework. India needs either a formal compliance mechanism or an outright prohibition.
Experts believe that the classification of opinion trading is nuanced. While at first glance it may appear speculative, deeper involvement often requires users to analyse news, trends, public sentiment, and economic indicators to make informed predictions, John said.
In that sense, there is a strong skill-based component. However, because outcomes can be influenced by unpredictable events, some level of chance is inevitable, he added.
Concerns around financial behaviour and youth impact
These platforms have seen high uptake among young users, raising concerns about long-term financial behaviour.
Jain said, With 5 crore users already engaged, these platforms are reshaping financial behaviour, particularly among young adults. The gamification design creates dopamine-driven engagement. Instead of learning disciplined investing, users expect quick results. The investment-like framing also creates a psychological blind spotusers believe they are trading, not gambling.
Industry voices see opportunity in regulation
Some experts from the gaming and fintech sectors believe opinion trading has the potential to evolveif proper checks are introduced.
John said the format may blend gaming with financial forecasting. As digital adoption grows, platforms that offer skill-based prediction tied to real events could gain traction. But they must prioritise trust, compliance, and transparency.
He emphasised the need for a regulatory framework that separates innovation from exploitation. Without clear rules, even legitimate platforms risk being clubbed with illegal ones, he said.
Unlike jurisdictions like United States, India currently lacks specific legislation that governs the operations and associated aspects of these platforms, Divya Sharma, corporate lawyer, elaborated to SiGMA News. Nevertheless, such activities are broadly subject to existing legal frameworks, including the Public Gambling Act 1867 and the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021, as amended from time to time.
SiGMA News contacted Probo and TradeX for comments on opinion trading platforms but has not received a response until the time of publication.
Indias leading online gaming platform Mobile Premier League (MPL) has recently suspended its Opinio feature in Haryana, in response to growing legal scrutiny of opinion trading platforms. The move follows a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) filed in the Punjab and Haryana High Court, seeking a ban on such platforms.
The now clearly state that users from Haryana are barred from participating in formats that pertain to events whose outcome is unknown, including both MPL Opinio and MPL Fantasy.
Haryana is not alone in moving against opinion trading apps. Chhattisgarh has already banned platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and TradeX. Other states are also examining legal action.
At the national level, the Supreme Court recently revived a case challenging the legality of such platforms. The case, filed by petitioner Sumit Kapurbhai Prajapati, had earlier been dismissed by the Gujarat High Court. The apex court criticised the dismissal and reinstated the PIL.
