Seaport estimates June 3.4% uptick on Macau's record May GGR
In the light of Macau posting its strongest and “better-than-expected” gross gaming revenue (GGR) results since the onset of Covid-19, Seaport Research Partners has reportedly estimated that June GGR could be up by 3.4 percent yearly. Analyst Vitaly Umansky has projected June’s gross gaming to near $2.28 billion, based upon a daily GGR estimate of $76 million.
For context, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has reported a 5 percent year-on-year rise in total GGR for May 2025, the highest monthly GGR recorded since the Covid-19 pandemic. For the month, GGR totaled MOP21.19 billion ($2.62 billion), a notable 12.4 percent increase over the MOP18.86 billion registered in April. The marks the first time this year that the monthly GGR has topped the MOP$20 billion mark, set as target by the government.
June’s GGR could drop sequentially
Analysts have noted that the May results could likely lead to a drop in June’s results of up to 13.7 percent, which is above the ‘historical month-to-month average of 12 percent during 2008-2019’. To put it in perspective, June of 2024 saw GGR for the month drop by 12.4 percent sequentially.
The analysts, echoing other brokerages, said that growth will be supported by concert-line-up at Macau’s integrated resorts. Integrated resorts now pull crowds with big-name concerts and entertainment offerings, which draw high-value customers. Additionally, the first two days of the month also include the Dragon Boat Festival Holiday. However, the start of the UEFA Euro Cup in June could ‘have a negative impact of GGR during the month.’ Umansky has also warned that GGR ‘could be negatively impacted if any typhoons in the area impact travel into Macau (typhoon frequency begins to increase in June)’.
H2 to outperform H1: analyst
Meanwhile, the note has projected that the second half of this year is likely to outperform the first. This is expected to fuel 6.1 percent growth in second half of 2025, compared to just 2.1 percent in the first half. ‘Growth should be driven by increased marketing efforts by operators and improving consumer trends in China,’ notes the analyst.
Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service reaffirmed the Macao Special Administrative Region’s (SAR) local and foreign currency issuer credit rating at ‘Aa3’, while maintaining a negative outlook. The ratings agency cited the city’s strong fiscal reserves which have grown to MOP$624 billion as of March 2025. An Aa3 rating from Moody’s is considered a high-quality, investment-grade rating indicating very low credit risk.
