Prediction market platforms cash in as NYC mayoral race intensifies
Prediction markets are booming as New York City’s mayoral race nears its final stretch, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi pulling in millions from users keen to turn political insight into profit.
Political betting is heating up in New York, and it’s not hard to see why. With the Democratic primary just days away on 24 June, attention has zeroed in on two polarising candidates: Andrew Cuomo, staging a political comeback after his resignation, and Zohran Mamdani, a progressive voice gaining traction with backing from Bernie Sanders.
It’s a race packed with narrative, one candidate weighed down by scandal, the other riding a wave of grassroots support, and prediction market traders are leaning in. For platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, the tension has turned into a perfect storm, fuelling a surge in trades and speculation.
“This poll makes clear that New Yorkers increasingly want a mayor who is focused on affordability, like Zohran Mamdani, and not a scandal-ridden politician like Andrew Cuomo,” New Yorkers for Lower Costs spokesperson that speaks to the polarised energy feeding into the markets.
Millions on the line as Cuomo and Mamdani dominate trades
Polymarket leads the pack, tied to the NYC mayoral outcome. The platform’s public-facing data reveals just how bullish some bettors are: one user has staked more than $153,000 on Cuomo’s victory, while another has placed $31,000 on Mamdani.
Kalshi is playing in a different lane but holding its own. With , the CFTC-regulated platform is carving out space with a more institutional, compliance-driven audience. While it doesn’t match Polymarket’s volume, Kalshi’s regulatory credentials offer access to users who’d typically steer clear of offshore or crypto-heavy alternatives.
That split in strategy, decentralised versus regulated, has allowed both platforms to expand without cannibalising each other’s user base. One appeals to the crypto crowd, the other to those more comfortable in a tightly governed trading environment.
Market shifts on every twist
Cuomo and Mamdani may be grabbing headlines, but the prediction markets are also reacting sharply to developments further down the ballot.
One standout moment came on 17 June, when NYC Comptroller Brad Lander was arrested by ICE agents while attending immigration court. Lander was reportedly attempting to advocate for a judicial warrant when he was detained. showed him protesting, “You don’t have the authority to arrest U.S. citizens asking for a judicial warrant.” Federal officials later said he had “assaulted law enforcement and impeded a federal officer.”
The arrest briefly spiked Lander’s odds, with some traders sensing an underdog surge. Adding to the political chaos is current mayor Eric Adams who is running as an independent after avoiding the Democratic primary altogether as he recovers from the effects of a corruption indictment last year. The charges were dropped earlier this year under the Trump administration, but the reputational damage lingers.
Prediction markets gain traction as traditional betting stalls
With mainstream gambling under pressure, 74 percent of U.S. revenue , prediction markets are positioning themselves as the more legitimate, savvy alternative. The drama surrounding NYC’s mayoral election has only added fuel to that fire.
For operators, this is a win. The trading volumes are proof that prediction markets are no longer a fringe interest. Referring to Kalshi’s designation as a financial exchange, summed it up perfectly: when a bet is not a bet it opens the door to regulatory grey areas that betting firms can’t enter.
In a year packed with political storylines, the NYC mayoral race is showing just how profitable uncertainty can be.
