Powerball odds set to tighten as Lotto NZ plans game revamp
New Zealand’s Powerball lottery may soon become more challenging to win, with Lotto NZ seeking approval for a structural change that would increase the number of balls in the draw. The proposed revision, described as a “matrix” adjustment, forms part of the organisation’s long-term strategy through to 2029.
At present, the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot stand at one in 38 million. Under the proposed changes, the odds could shift to one in 46 million with the addition of two more balls. A further increase to 15 balls in the draw would raise the odds to one in 57.5 million, significantly reducing the likelihood of winning.
The last change to the Powerball format was implemented in 2007. Similar adjustments have since been adopted internationally—Australia modified its Powerball matrix in 2018, and the United States’ Mega Millions has also undergone changes aimed at increasing jackpots while lowering winning chances.
Change in odds after 18 years
Lotto NZ’s planned update aims to keep the game competitive and engaging, especially in the face of inflation and a rising population. The strategy is also designed to maintain prize value and ensure long-term financial returns for community causes.
Powerball remains the organisation’s flagship product and a major source of funding for public initiatives. In the financial year ending June 30, 2024, Powerball proceeds totaled NZ$434 million (€398 million), distributed through the Lottery Grants Board.
However, the proposed shift has prompted concerns, particularly around responsible gambling. The Problem Gambling Foundation has previously highlighted Lotto-related harm, with around twelve percent of its clients citing the lottery as their primary gambling issue. By comparison, fifty percent of those seeking treatment reported pokies as the main source of harm, while nine percent were impacted by betting on sports or horse racing through the TAB.
Changes driven by market rivalry
Lotto NZ also faces increasing competition from digital sports betting and horse racing platforms. As these alternatives gain popularity, the organisation is aiming to evolve Powerball in a way that retains public interest and ensures strong financial returns for the community.
The potential changes are now subject to regulatory consultation and ministerial approval. Public attention is focused on the balance between offering larger jackpots and making the game more difficult to win. While many see the shift as a natural evolution, others fear it could deepen gambling risks or make the game less accessible.
With the government reviewing the proposal, the fate of Powerball’s new direction is expected to be decided in the next few months.
