More than R$30 million in bets on the choice of the new pope
The death of Pope Francis, which occurred on 21 April 2025, at the age of 88, caused by complications from bilateral pneumonia, marked the beginning of the period known as “sede vacante” in the Vatican. With this, the Catholic Church is preparing for the Conclave that will choose the new spiritual leader of more than 1.3 billion faithful around the world. This process has also sparked the interest of bettors and analysts, moving millions of dollars on online betting platforms.
The Conclave: tradition and process
The Conclave is the process by which the cardinals of the Catholic Church elect a new pope. It takes place in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican, between 15 and 20 days after the death of the previous pontiff. In this case, it is expected that the Conclave will begin between 6 and 11 May 2025, and may be brought forward if all voting cardinals are present.
Only cardinals under the age of 80 on the date of the pope’s death are eligible to vote. Currently, there are 135 cardinals with the right to vote, of whom 120 will take part in the Conclave. To be elected, a candidate must obtain two-thirds of the votes from the cardinals present. Voting is secret and continues until one name reaches the required majority.
Favourites and betting
The choice of the new pope is not only a religious event but also a phenomenon that draws the attention of bettors around the world. Platforms like Polymarket, which presents itself as a “prediction market”, have already moved more than US$6 million in bets on who will be the next pope, which amounts to approximately R$30 million. Among the main candidates are:
- Pietro Parolin: A 70-year-old Italian cardinal, current Secretary of State of the Vatican. He is considered the favourite in several betting houses due to his diplomatic experience and alignment with Francis’s reformist policies.
- Luis Antonio Tagle: A 67-year-old Filipino cardinal, former Archbishop of Manila and current Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation. Known for his humility and defence of the marginalised, he is seen as a possible continuer of Francis’s legacy.
- Matteo Zuppi: A 69-year-old Italian cardinal, Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Episcopal Conference. He has stood out for his role in peace missions and is considered a moderate progressive.
- Peter Turkson: A 76-year-old Ghanaian cardinal, who has previously served as Archbishop of Cape Coast and is known for his work on social and economic issues. His election would represent a historic milestone as the first modern African pope.
- Peter Erdo: A 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest. He is seen as a conservative, and his election could signal a change in the Church’s direction after years of reforms.
Other names mentioned include Angelo Scola and Marc Ouellet, both over 80 and therefore ineligible to vote, but still eligible to be elected. inelegíveis para votar, mas ainda aptos a serem eleitos.
Betting and ethics
Although betting on the papal election is popular in countries such as the United Kingdom, where bookmakers like Paddy Power and Ladbrokes offer odds for the candidates, in Brazil, regulation restricts betting to sporting events. Furthermore, there are ethical debates about the practice of betting on religious events, especially considering Pope Francis’s own criticisms of financial speculation.
The choice of the new pope will have important implications for the future of the Catholic Church. Depending on who is elected, the reforms initiated by Francis may continue, or there may be a shift towards more conservative positions. Regardless of the result, the world awaits with anticipation the announcement of “Habemus Papam” and the presentation of the Church’s new spiritual leader.
This article was first published in Portuguese on 25 April 2025.
