As per several analysts, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for March is likely to range between MOP19 billion (US$2.38 billion) and MOP20.5 billion.
J.P. Morgan’s analysts predict a “flattish” performance as compared to 2024, with a GGR range of MOP19 billion to MOP19.5 billion. Analysts expect that the first quarter will show no significant growth, with a slight dip to around MOP56.7 billion, down from the 2024 record of MOP57.3 billion. “We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5% y/y vs. 0% in 1H25E), resulting in a modest +2% growth for FY2025E,” analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi wrote.
Optimistic outlook
On the other hand, Seaport Research Partners is more optimistic, projecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3 percent, with the GGR expected to reach MOP20.5 billion. Their optimistic outlook is largely based on favorable policies coming from China’s Two Sessions, a series of high-level political meetings attended by key policymakers. “With an increasing tariff regime in the US, we expect China policymakers to more forcefully look at expanding consumption and improving domestic consumer confidence,” wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky. “Such policy initiatives should have a positive tailwind to Macau revenues.”
Morgan Stanley’s forecast is in line with the positive predictions from Seaport Research Partners. The analysts at Morgan Stanley expect March GGR to reach MOP20.1 billion, representing a 3.3 percent increase compared to the previous year. This could lift the first-quarter result to MOP58.1 billion, up 1 percent year-on-year. “This could imply 1Q25 industry EBITDA falling QoQ and YoY as costs are more than 1% higher,” Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen K Choudhary wrote.
February’s figures
The projections come after Macau witnessed a rise in February 2025 GGR. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has total gaming gross revenue (GGR) was up 6.8 percent year-on-year to reach MOP19.74 billion ($2.46 billion).
The GGR for February came in 8.2 percent higher than the corresponding period last year, when gaming revenue reached MOP$18.3 billion. For the combined two months of 2025, GGR reached MOP$38.0 billion, this is up 0.5 percent compared with the same period last year. February’s result comes after operators reported strong post-Chinese New Year demand which helped soften the blow that the city’s 바카라s faced during the “softer than originally forecast” Lunar New Year Golden Week.
February’s GGR is in line with expectations, as stated by Success Universe deputy chairman Ma Ho-man, who said it was expected to recover this month. The region is expected to record low single-digit growth for the first two months of the year, he said.
