Macau's GGR as expected at $80 million per day in early March: analysts
Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for March 2025 is estimated to reach MOP$5.75 billion (US$718 million) in the first nine days, in line with estimates according to JP Morgan analysts. This figure translates to an average of MOP$638 million (US$79.7 million) in daily gaming revenue.
According to JP Morgan analysts, the month-to-date performance is “encouraging for a shoulder month like March.” JP Morgan pointed out that mass GGR is running at 110 percent+ of pre-COVID levels whereas VIP GGR reached low-20 percent. “We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps, resulting in a modest 3 percent growth for FY2025,” they wrote.
J.P. Morgan’s analysts predicted a “flattish” performance as compared to 2024, with a GGR range of MOP19 billion to MOP19.5 billion. Analysts expect that the first quarter will show no significant growth, with a slight dip to around MOP56.7 billion, down from the 2024 record of MOP57.3 billion. “We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5 percent y/y vs. 0 percent in 1H25E), resulting in a modest +2 percent growth for FY2025E,” analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi wrote.
Jefferies cuts Macau GGR forecast
The March update comes with some analysts cutting Macau’s GGR forecast for 2025. Jefferies has downgraded its forecast for the year, setting Macau’s GGR expectations at MOP$240 billion. This marks a 2 percent decline from its previous projection, aligning with the Macau government’s forecasts after a slower than anticipated start to the year.
The revised forecast predicts a 5.8 percent year-on-year growth in the gaming industry, a substantial figure given the volatility of the global gaming market. From March to December 2025, Jefferies expects an uptick in gaming revenue, with growth projected to rise by 6.9 percent. This forecast highlights a promising recovery for the latter part of the year, as global conditions stabilise and demand for Macau’s gaming offerings picks up.
Policy changes affecting tourism and 바카라 visitation were mainly attributed for part of this growth forecast by Jefferies. “We expect the newly announced multi-entry visa for Zhuhai residents effective in January 2025, together with the ‘Group-in-Group-out’ multi-entry visa effective in May 2024, to continue to help boost visitations to Macau and mass gaming revenue,” noted the analysts in their review.
February’s figures
For the month of February, Macau’s GGR witnessed a rise of 6.8 percent year-on-year, hitting MOP19.74 billion, according to Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). The GGR for February came in 8.2 percent higher than the corresponding period last year, when gaming revenue reached MOP$18.3 billion.
For the combined two months of 2025, GGR reached MOP$38.0 billion, this is up 0.5 percent compared with the same period last year. February’s result comes after operators reported strong post-Chinese New Year demand which helped soften the blow that the city’s 바카라s faced during the “softer than originally forecast” Lunar New Year Golden Week.
