Trump's tariff gamble rattles Macaus 2025 GGR outlook: analyst
Citigroup has revised down its 2025 growth forecast for Macaus 바카라 sector, citing weak Chinese New Year (CNY) gambling activity and fresh US tariffs on Chinese exports. The brokerage firm now expects a 3 percent year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR), significantly lower than its previous 7 percent projection.
Macau has long relied on high-value players from mainland China, particularly factory owners with interests in export sectors. However, Citi analysts say economic pressures, including US-China trade tensions, have weakened their spending power.?The situation may aggravate further.
The latest figures reflect this decline, with January 2025 recording a daily GGR of MOP 589 million (67 million), while the first five days of February averaged MOP 900 million (103 million).
Typically, the Lunar New Year holiday is a peak period for Macaus 바카라s, yet gaming revenue fell short of expectations. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau attributed this to late cancellations by visitors and the economic impact of US tariffs, which took effect on 1 February 2025.
US tariffs add to Macaus challenges
The tariff measures, announced by US President Donald Trump, impose a 10 percent duty on Chinese goods. The White House framed the move as a strategy to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking, but it has exacerbated economic uncertainty.?
Chinas commerce ministry strongly condemned the tariffs, promising “corresponding countermeasures” and a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization.
The introduction of these tariffs has had ripple effects on Macaus economy, given the citys reliance on high-spending visitors from China. Citi analysts warned that first-half 2025 GGR could see a 1 percent year-on-year decline, marking the second consecutive period of negative growth.
Slow recovery expected
Despite the downturn, Citi remains optimistic about a potential rebound later in the year. The brokerage firm anticipates that as the effects of US tariffs stabilise, player sentiment will improve.
Several high-profile events are expected to bolster tourism and gaming revenue, including a concert by Hong Kong singer Jacky Cheung at Galaxy Arena in June. Additionally, the summer holiday season and Chinas National Day Golden Week in October could provide further support.
Citi projects that second-half 2025 GGR will reach MOP 119.5 billion, representing a 6 percent year-on-year increase. However, analysts caution that this growth is partly due to a low comparison base in 2024, making gains appear larger than they may be in real terms.
While the short-term outlook for Macaus 바카라 industry remains uncertain, investors may find reassurance in signs of a gradual recovery later in the year.
