Macau revenues unlikely to hit pre-pandemic peak again, analysts warn
Macau has seen a strong recovery in its tourism sector, with visitor numbers approaching pre-pandemic levels two years after reopening its borders. However, financial analysts warn that the gambling hub’s revenue per visitor may struggle to reach previous heights, according to IAG.
A recent report by research group CreditSights, as , identifies several factors hampering the complete recovery of Macau’s gaming industry. Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey highlighted the collapse of the junket sector in late 2022 as a significant blow, eliminating a substantial source of high-spending VIP players.
Perhaps more crucially, visits from China’s wealthiest provinces—including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin—has already returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and early 2025. This suggests that future growth in mainland Chinese visitors will likely come from lower-income regions, potentially contributing less to gross gaming revenue (GGR).
January 2025 figures reveal that average gross gaming revenue (GGR) per visitor stood at MOP$5,006 (€475), representing a steep 26 percent decline from January 2024. Analysts suggest this drop may have been influenced by an influx of non-gambling visitors during Chinese New Year celebrations.
GGR tumbles 6%
Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau previously reported January 2025 GGR totalling MOP$18.3 billion (€1.5 billion), reflecting a 6 percent decline compared to the same period last year. Industry experts will be watching closely as February’s results are released, looking for signs of sustained improvement in Macau’s gaming sector.
The eight-day Lunar New Year Golden Week saw Macau welcome nearly 1.31 million visitors, marking a 3.5 percent decline compared to last year but recovered to 95 percent of pre-Covid levels, according to the Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO).
Mainland Chinese visitors, Macau’s largest tourism market, totalled approximately one million during the holiday period from 28 January 2025 to 4 February 2025, down 3.2 percent from the previous year. Hong Kong arrivals experienced a sharper decline of 8.9 percent, with 231,058 visitors.
Shockwaves from Trump’s memo
New political developments may further complicate Macau’s recovery. US President Donald Trump recently signed a memorandum directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to impose investment restrictions on “foreign adversaries”, explicitly including China, Hong Kong and Macau alongside countries such as Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela.
In the memorandum, titled “America First Investment Policy”, Trump emphasised that economic security is directly linked to national security, suggesting that Chinese investments in US strategic sectors could threaten American interests. These restrictions could potentially impact Macau’s tourism and economic outlook.
Despite these challenges, CreditSights expects a sequential improvement in February’s GGR figures. Several 바카라 concessionaires have reported strong footfall and gaming activity during the latter half of the Chinese New Year period, potentially boosting overall revenue. A year-on-year improvement remains a possibility, as analysts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the sector.
