Macau’s 바카라 sector has already generated over MOP132 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) by mid-2025, surpassing 61 percent of the government’s revised full-year target. According to data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), 바카라s recorded MOP18.6 billion in GGR for July so far—an 11.6 percent year-on-year increase.
As of mid-July, Macau’s total GGR has reached MOP132.35 billion, up 36.7 percent compared to the same period last year. The strong showing comes despite a recent downward revision of the government’s full-year forecast. In June, officials trimmed their 2025 GGR projection by 5 percent—from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion—citing macroeconomic headwinds and changing tourist behaviour. The direct gaming tax revenue forecast was also cut by 5 percent to MOP79.8 billion, down from MOP84 billion.
Jefferies upgrades Macau GGR forecast for 2025
However, investment bank Jefferies has taken a more optimistic view. In a recent note, analysts upgraded their 2025 GGR forecast for Macau to MOP237 billion, aligning with broader market sentiment but exceeding the government’s revised expectations. The decision was based on robust first-half results, with GGR climbing 4.4 percent year-on-year to MOP118.8 billion, driven in large part by surging revenues in May and June.
Looking ahead, Jefferies forecasts continued growth in the region’s gaming industry. The firm predicts a 3.5 percent rise in GGR to MOP245 billion in 2026, followed by a further 3.4 percent increase to MOP254 billion in 2027.
For the first half of July, Jefferies estimates a 9 percent year-on-year increase in GGR. This growth has been supported by major entertainment events, including the Jacky Cheung concert series at Galaxy Arena, and a higher-than-average VIP win rate. Although GGR in early July dipped around 10 percent compared to the final two weeks of June, analysts described the trend as encouraging—especially given the seasonal slowdown typically seen in Q3.
“This is a good start to 2H25, considering the third quarter is usually a low season,” the analysts commented. “The market remains divided—some expect the strong momentum from May and June to continue, while others believe VIP players simply visited earlier due to new property openings.”
CLSA revises forecast, gambling crimes also up
In parallel, another leading investment bank, CLSA, also revised its GGR forecast for Macau in early June. CLSA now expects GGR to hit US$30.1 billion (approximately MOP242.5 billion) in 2025, representing a 7.6 percent year-on-year rise. The upgrade reflects growing tourist arrivals, a strengthening Chinese yuan, and strong performances from leading 바카라 operators such as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, according to CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang.
However, the rapid resurgence in gaming activity is also being accompanied by a spike in gambling-related crime. Macau’s Judiciary Police reported a notable increase in gaming-linked offences during the first five months of 2025. Authorities recorded 943 cases—a 62.9 percent year-on-year rise—with 204 incidents, or 21.6 percent, tied to unauthorised money exchanges for gambling.
Briefing local media on 11 July, warned of mounting threats to the integrity of Macau’s regulated 바카라 industry. He pointed to illegal money exchange and fraud as significant areas of concern as the sector continues to rebound post-pandemic.
