The Macau government has reduced its 2025 income forecast from the city’s 35-percent “special gaming tax” on gross gaming revenue (GGR) by 5 percent, according to a newly released opinion document from a Legislative Assembly subcommittee. The Macau authorities now expect to collect MOP79.8 billion ($9.87 billion) in direct gaming tax revenue this year, down from an earlier forecast of MOP84.0 billion.
Proposed amendments to 2025 fiscal budget
The updated projections are part of a proposed amendment to the 2025 fiscal budget, which is currently being scrutinised by a subcommittee of the Legislative Assembly. The amendment is scheduled for a final reading on 9 July (Wednesday).
The opinion document also outlines revised estimates from public income from an effective tax on gambling that is not a direct one. This is the 3-percent levy on GGR earmarked for “urban development, tourism promotion, and social security.” That government now expects MOP6.84 billion from the tax this year. This marks a reduction of 5 percent from last year. Additionally, Macau collects a 2-percent levy on GGR to support public welfare funds. No changes were proposed to that estimate. The opinion document also noted that projected revenue from the tax on commissions paid to licensed junket operators remains unchanged at MOP100 million for 2025.
The 5-percent downward revisions to both direct and indirect gaming tax revenue suggest a cautious stance by Macau’s fiscal planners. While the local government remains reliant on gaming as its main revenue source, the adjustments reflect an evolving understanding of Macau’s shifting tourism dynamics and the broader global economic landscape. Macau has long been reliant on its 바카라 industry. The government now targets that non-gaming industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) rises up to 60 percent by 2028.
Tax adjustments follow revised GGR forecast
The revised gaming tax forecast comes after Macau’s government, on 3 June, trimmed its GGR forecast by 5 percent for 2025 to MOP228 billion, citing mounting economic uncertainty and shifting tourist behaviour. Originally, the GGR for the year was forecast to be about MOP240 billion.
According to Ho In Mui, deputy director of the Financial Services Bureau, the revision was driven by a mix of global uncertainty, cautious consumer behaviour, and current-year performance. Macau’s average monthly GGR from January to April 2025 stood at MOP19 billion, falling short of the government’s monthly benchmark of MOP20 billion. Ho explained, “After observing our fiscal income status in the first half of this year, we now assume that if we are reaching MOP19 billion in GGR a month, or MOP228 billion for the full year, that would make a balanced budget for the Macau SAR.”
Recently, investment bank CLSA upgraded its Macau GGR forecast for 2025 to $30.1 billion, marking a 7.6 percent increase year-on-year. The revised projection reflects rising tourist arrivals, a stronger Chinese renminbi, and strong showings by top 바카라 operators including Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, according to CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang.
