Despite Macau’s gaming sector posting a surprise uptick in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for April 2025, CreditSights has reportedly warned that the city remains on a difficult path to achieving its ambitious full-year revenue target. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 1.7 percent rise in total gaming revenue for April 2025, defying market expectations of a decline.
For April, GGR totaled MOP18.86 billion ($2.33 billion), up 1.7 from the corresponding period. But marked a decline of 4.1 percent sequentially. While the registered GGR outperformed consensus of a 1 percent decline, it remained below the MOP20 billion level needed to stay on track with the government’s fiscal year 2025 target of MOP240 billion.
Cumulatively, GGR for the four months of this year totaled MOP76.51 billion, up 0.8 per cent year-on-year. However, the figure is 23.3 per cent lower than the same period of 2019 and well behind the 6 percent annual growth projected by the government. To hit its annual target, Macau would need 38.1 million visitors in 2025—nearly 97 percent of its 2019 record levels.
Improvement in visitor arrivals and spend needed: analysts
Macau welcomed over 3.09 million visitors in April 2025, an 18.9 percent increase year-on-year, according to the city’s Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). Visitor arrivals for the first four months of the year totaled nearly 12.96 million, marking a 12.9 percent rise compared with the same period last year. But per-visitor gaming spend slipped to MOP6,097, down 14 percent year-on-year and 5 percent month-on-month.
“Unless we see sustained improvements in both visitation and per-visitor gaming spend in the coming months, we see a high likelihood that Macau will fall short of the government’s target,” the report warned.
Analysts cautiously optimistic
However, analysts have cautious optimism for a stronger performance in May. They believe this will be on the back of a 41 percent year-on-year surge in tourist arrivals during the Labour Day Holiday, which was from 1–5 May. Additionally, the analysts said that supporting the year-on-year growth is a growth concert-line-up at Macau’s integrated resorts. Integrated resorts now pull crowds with big-name concerts and entertainment offerings, which draw high-value customers. With Sammi Cheng’s shows on 24 and 25 May, Show Lo on 31 May, and Leon Lai’s 10-show series on 31 May, these high-end concerts are expected to drive volumes.
Meanwhile, Macau’s GGR for the seven days from 12 to 18 May, is estimated to have averaged MOP$593 million per day, according to a note from Citigroup. This represents a 3 percent increase over the prior week period. According to the note, the weekly run rate maintains gaming revenues within expected seasonality. This follows Macau’s GGR experiencing a sharp 44 percent week-on-week drop in average daily revenue (ADR) following the May’s Golden Week holiday.
