Investment bank Jefferies has upgraded its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau in 2025. The investment bank has raised its estimate to MOP$237 billion ($29.3 billion). The move is in line with broader market expectations, however, it stands above the Macau government’s recently revised target.
Strong 1H 2025 performance
The bank’s analysts attributed the upgrade to strong first-half performance in 2025, with GGR reaching MOP$118.8 billion, a 4.4 percent year-on-year increase, driven mainly by surging revenues in May and June. Jefferies also provided a bullish outlook for the years ahead, forecasting GGR to climb 3.5 percent to MOP$245 billion in 2026, and a further 3.4 percent to MOP$254 billion in 2027.
The report identified Galaxy Entertainment Group and MGM China as likely leaders in gaining further market share over the next two years. Sands China is also expected to strengthen its position following the completion of its Londoner Macao renovation project. Additionally, ahead of the Q2 2025 earnings season, Jefferies has projected that Galaxy, MGM, and Sands will continue to capture greater market share, largely at the expense of SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau.
“We expect Galaxy to experience margin expansion in 2Q25, with the scale at its Galaxy property reaching an inflection point,” said analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei in the note, as reported by media. They added, “On the other hand, Sands China is likely to focus on driving absolute Adjusted EBITDA. Among the niche operators, MGM continues to outperform, in our view.”
Preliminary GGR estimates for 14 days of July
Jefferies has also laid out preliminary GGR estimates for the first two weeks of July, projecting an approximate 9 percent year-on-year increase. This performance was buoyed by the Jacky Cheung concert series held at Galaxy Arena and a higher-than-usual VIP win rate. While GGR figures for early July were reportedly 10 percent lower than the final fortnight of June, analysts viewed the trend as encouraging given the seasonal dip typically seen in Q3.
The analysts said this was still “a good start to 2H given that the third quarter is normally a low season. We believe the market view is currently mixed, wondering if the strong performance in May and June will continue in 2H25 or whether VIP players just visited Macau earlier this year for the new properties.
“After the success of Jacky Cheung concerts in the second half of June to the first week of July, Galaxy is hosting Eason Chan concerts in August. The popular [House of Dancing Water] show, which resumed [at City of Dreams] in May, will also help attract traffic during the summer period. Summer time, which mainly attracts tourists, tends to benefit big property operators based on seasonal trends.”
CLSA upgrades GGR forecast
In early June, investment bank CLSA has upgraded its Macau GGR forecast for 2025 to $30.1 billion, marking a 7.6 percent increase year-on-year. The revised projection reflects rising tourist arrivals, a stronger Chinese renminbi, and strong showings by top 바카라 operators including Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, according to CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang.
Macau’s 바카라 sector continues its strong post-pandemic rebound, with GGR surging 8.3 percent year-on-year in Q2 2025 to MOP$61.1 billion. Investment bank Citigroup reportedly expects this to translate into a 3 percent increase in industry EBITDA, reaching $2.05 billion for the quarter. While gaming revenue hit a post-COVID peak, the more modest EBITDA growth is attributed to an unexpected surge in VIP play. According to Citi analysts, the rebound in VIP gaming activity created a less favorable revenue mix, which typically carries lower margins compared to the premium mass market.
