Fitch Ratings predicts subdued growth for Macau this year
In its latest forecast, Fitch Ratings has projected a more subdued economic growth for Macau in 2025, predicting a growth rate of 6.9 percent. This marks a decline from the 8.8 percent growth the region experienced in 2024.
The agency has predicted that Macau’s gross gaming revenue will “rise more gradually” to about 81 percent of its pre-pandemic level in 2019. In addition, Fitch has Macau’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at “AA,” accompanied by a “stable outlook.” The credit rating agency said it expects gross domestic product (GDP) would be supported by “continued, but slower, gaming tourism recovery, along with favourable visa policies for mainland visitors, non-gaming investments and enhanced tourism infrastructure.”
The rating, the agency said, primarily reflected Macau’s “exceptionally strong public and external finances” along with “demonstrated prudent fiscal management even during periods of economic and gaming revenue shocks.”
Macau’s continued dependence on gambling sector
The slowdown can be attributed to several factors, including global economic uncertainties, slower growth in mainland China, and Macau’s continued dependence on gambling tourists from the mainland, which leaves it vulnerable to policy shifts regarding gambling from the central government.
Although Fitch anticipates Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai to outline plans to “expedite diversification towards strategic non-gaming industries” in his upcoming policy address. The agency has warned that human capital restraints and skill mismatches would still see the region heavily relying on the gaming sector in the near term. “We expect Macau’s gaming dependence to persist,” analysts wrote in the note.
March GGR projections
As per several analysts, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for March is likely to range between MOP19 billion (US$2.38 billion) and MOP20.5 billion. J.P. Morgan’s analysts predict a “flattish” performance as compared to 2024, with a GGR range of MOP19 billion to MOP19.5 billion. Analysts expect that the first quarter will show no significant growth, with a slight dip to around MOP56.7 billion, down from the 2024 record of MOP57.3 billion.
“We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5% y/y vs. 0% in 1H25E), resulting in a modest +2% growth for FY2025E,” analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi wrote.
On the other hand, Seaport Research Partners and Morgan Stanley remain more optimistic. Seaport has projected a year-on-year increase of 5.3 percent, with the GGR expected to reach MOP20.5 billion. Whereas analysts at Morgan Stanley expect March GGR to reach MOP20.1 billion, representing a 3.3 percent increase compared to the previous year.
The projections come after Macau witnessed a rise in February 2025 GGR. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has total gaming gross revenue (GGR) was up 6.8 percent year-on-year to reach MOP19.74 billion ($2.46 billion).
