Prediction markets meet crypto in Kalshi C Webull launch
Kalshi, the rule-breaking prediction market where users can “bet on anything”from sports and papal elections to political headlineshas taken another leap forward. The platform has partnered with Webull to launch a new suite of hourly crypto prediction markets, allowing users to wager on real-time price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“Congratulations to our partner Webull Financial on launching Kalshi’s crypto prediction markets today,” said Tarek Mansour, CEO and co-founder of Kalshi. “The teams have worked tirelessly over the last few weeks to make this happen. This is the next iteration of our deep partnership with Webull to offer all types of markets to their customers. The best part? We’re just getting started.”
Webull, a fintech brokerage founded in 2016 and now operating in 14 markets globally, has marketed the new feature with the tagline: “Your Market. Your Hour. Your Move.”
The Cramer Curse
Soon after the announcement, CNBC host Jim Cramer praised the partnership, proclaiming, “People are very excited about prediction markets.”
However, Cramer has developed a well-known reputation for inaccurate market predictionsso much so that it’s often referred to as the Cramer Curse: when he endorses a stock or asset, it’s frequently taken as a sign that it may move in the opposite direction. His positive remarks have, somewhat infamously, become seen as a bearish signal, prompting some investors to sell when he says to buyand vice versa.
“Before the media reaches out, we are aware of Cramer’s positive comments regarding the Kalshi x Webull partnership,” Mansour joked on social media. “We remain confident that we can outlast the Cramer Curse. Business continues as usual.”
The legal gamble that paid off
Kalshi has built its reputation on navigating the legal grey zones of financial innovation. Just over a month ago, on 5 May, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) dropped its long-standing legal opposition to Kalshi’s election-based marketsa major victory in the company’s fight to legitimise event-based trading in the U.S.
Speaking at the Bitcoin Conference shortly after the decision, Mansour recounted the harrowing regulatory battle: “When we proposed markets on U.S. elections, the CFTC blocked them. We did something unheard ofwe sued our own regulator,” he said. “It was death by a thousand paper cutsthey attacked us personally, attacked the company.”
So why take the risk?
“Because these products should exist,” Mansour said. He believes polls are broken, news is polarised, and prediction markets offer something differenta financial incentive to get it right.
Mansour, a former Goldman Sachs trader, got the idea for Kalshi after watching clients try to hedge against real-world eventslike electionsusing overly complex financial instruments.
“They’d bet right on the outcome but still lose money because the proxy didn’t behave as expected,” he said.
Kalshi was born from a simple idea: What if people could trade directly on what they care about? After more than three years of regulatory groundwork, the company now operates as a federally regulated exchange, with contracts tied to everything from inflation to footballand now, cryptocurrency.
