Citigroup has reportedly forecasted that Macaus gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow by 6 percent in the second half of 2025, resulting in a 4 percent year-on-year increase for the full year to reach about MOP235.7 billion ($29.15 billion). In a note, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that Macau’s gaming market is “reaching an inflection point for good” and that they “remain bullish” on the city’s gaming sector.
Macau ‘reaching inflection point for good’
Their confidence stems not just from numbers, but from trends. The consecutive GGR beats in April and May, plus the strong start to the month of June, likely indicate that Macau is reaching an inflection point for good, they wrote in the memo. After a slow start to 2025, Macau is seeing GGR growth reacceleration in the second quarter of 2025 C 2 percent year-on-year in April, 5 percent year-on-year in May, and June is on track for another 5 percent year-on-year.
They added, Year-to-date, per capita spending on gaming C i.e. GGR divided by overnight visitation C remains largely unchanged, suggesting that players remain passionate about gaming and, more importantly, that the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade conflicts so far appear not to be discouraging them from playing.
The analysts said that growth will be supported by concert-line-up put together by 바카라 operators for the second half of 2025. Integrated resorts now pull crowds with big-name concerts and entertainment offerings, which draw high-value customers. Major acts expected to draw crowds include Cantopop legends Jacky Cheung and Aaron Kwok, international soft rock duo Air Supply, and K-pop sensation TWICE.
Citi’s estimate higher than Macau government
The banking giant’s estimates is higher than the Macau government’s latest forecast. Last week, Macau government trimmed its GGR forecast by 5 percent for 2025 to MOP228 billion, citing mounting economic uncertainty and shifting tourist behaviour. Originally, the GGR for the year was forecast to be about MOP240 billion. On this, the analysts have noted that they view the governments forecast as the bear-case scenario.
In terms of visitor arrivals, Macau registered a 12.9 percent year-on-year increase in visitor arrivals for the first four months of 2025, reaching about 13.0 million. Smashing visitor arrival expectations in the five-day Labour Day Golden Week from 1 to 5 May period, Macau welcomed over 850,000 visitors over the averaging more than 170,000 arrivals each day. The banking institution largely attributed the increase to people arriving from neighbouring Zhuhai, on the Chinese mainland.
Macaus new visa policy for mainland Chinese residents from Zhuhai and Hengqin allows residents with household registration and residence permits in these regions to apply for multiple-entry visas. These permits, valid for one year with unlimited entries capped at seven-day stays, are expected to add 20,000 daily visitors from these areas.?However, “the purpose of entry is unlikely to be gaming for most of them, the Citi analysts wrote.
Per capita gaming spending holding well: analysts
They noted, We think a better way to gauge the quality of real players is to compare GGR against overnight visitation, since most of the hotel rooms in Macau are comped to 바카라 players. As year-to-date GGR growth and overnight visitation growth are largely similar, our analysis concludes that per capita gaming spending C and thus player quality C is holding up well.
In May, Macaus Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) recorded the highest monthly GGR since the Covid-19 pandemic. For the month, GGR totaled MOP21.19 billion, a 5 percent year-on-year rise and a 12.4 percent increase over the MOP18.86 billion registered in April. Cumulatively, GGR for the five months of this year totaled MOP97.7 billion, compared to the MOP96.05 billion generated in the same period last year.
