Galaxy Macau's Capella pushes May GGR forecast up to $2.64B: Citigroup
In its latest update, investment bank Citigroup has raised its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau in May 2025. The new estimate stands at MOP21.25 billion ($2.64 billion), up from MOP21 billion. The upgraded projection comes on the back of stronger-than-expected performance for the week of 19-25 May, which has been attributed to the newly opened Capella at Galaxy Macau. The addition of the , which was described as “a serene oasis in the centre of a bustling city,” has further solidified Galaxy Macau’s position as a leading luxury resort.
Daily run rate of MOP686M: Citigroup
According to Citigroup’s weekly gaming update, Macau’s GGR for the first 25 days of May reached nearly MOP17.5 billion, which translates to a daily run rate of MOP686 million. Meanwhile, during the week of May 19–25, Macau recorded a daily GGR run rate of MOP686 million. This marked a 16 percent jump from the previous week’s MOP593 million per day.
Citigroup noted that VIP volumes grew approximately 25–30 percent month-over-month. However, the note also highlighted a drop in mass gross gaming of 10 percent sequentially. VIP hold rates, on the other hand, were lower compared to the previous week but remained above normal levels.
“The spike in last week’s gross gaming revenue was a pleasant surprise. We suspect this was due to the newly opened Capella at Galaxy Macau,” Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau stated in their report.
The updated forecast for May represents 82 percent of May 2019 levels. It also reflects a 5 percent increase compared to the corresponding period. Looking ahead, analysts expect daily GGR to average MOP625 million for the final six days of May. This is 1 percent higher than the 2024 monthly average.
Macau 2025 GGR target still out of reach: CreditSights
In related news, despite Macau’s gaming sector posting a surprise uptick in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for April 2025, CreditSights has warned that the city remains on a difficult path to achieving its ambitious full-year revenue target. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 1.7 percent rise in total gaming revenue for April 2025, defying market expectations of a decline.
However, analysts have cautious optimism for a stronger performance in May. They believe this will be on the back of a 41 percent year-on-year surge in tourist arrivals during the Labour Day Holiday, which was from 1–5 May. Additionally, the analysts said that supporting the year-on-year growth is a growth concert-line-up at Macau’s integrated resorts. Integrated resorts now pull crowds with big-name concerts and entertainment offerings, which draw high-value customers.
For April, GGR totaled MOP18.86 billion ($2.33 billion), up 1.7 from the corresponding period. But marked a decline of 4.1 percent sequentially. While the registered GGR outperformed consensus of a 1 percent decline, it remained below the MOP20 billion level needed to stay on track with the government’s fiscal year 2025 target of MOP240 billion.
