Betting on war: should prediction markets turn conflict into profit?
A deadly attack in the Indian town of Pahalgam on 22 April, which killed 26 civilians, has set off a ripple far beyond South Asia. On the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, the fallout triggered a spike in trading volume: “Will India invade Pakistan before July?” In just one day, the odds surged to 13%. Over $1 million has already been wagered on this single question. Betting on war is no longer just a metaphor—it’s a market.
Polymarket and competitors like Kalshi are pioneering a controversial new frontier in prediction markets: real-world events with devastating consequences. These platforms, often associated with crypto-savvy traders, allow users to place bets on everything from elections to natural disasters—and, increasingly, military conflict.
In an email to NBC News, Polymarket claimed that their goal is not sensationalism, but clarity: “Polymarket’s mission is to serve as an alternative news source, leveraging the wisdom of the crowd to get real-time, unbiased forecasts about the things that matter most.” In April 2025 alone, the platform launched nearly 7,000 markets, including wagers on the next pope, Eurovision, and… the likelihood of a major Israeli operation in Gaza.
For many users, like “Finn,” a 22-year-old German quoted in Le Monde, the moral lines are blurry: “I have no scruples betting on war. I don’t influence the outcome, and I’m not the one causing suffering.” He admits to sleeping little, constantly monitoring global events for trading opportunities.
When forecasting feels like gambling
Critics argue that such platforms are gambling dressed up as data science. Supporters, however, say they provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polling or punditry. Jack Such, a representative of Kalshi, claims: “The market mechanism distils information with such precision it surpasses expert opinion or polling.” Polymarket itself has embraced the role of clairvoyant, launching a newsletter titled The Oracle, which advises bettors with analysis of political developments, including recent Donald Trump’s immigration policies.
Indeed, Polymarket gained mainstream attention in 2024 when it accurately predicted Trump’s re-election. As the vote neared, odds swung in his favour after massive last-minute bets—including one allegedly worth $30 million.
Vitalik Buterin and the ethics of event markets
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin waded into the controversy last year when he defended Polymarket’s right to host markets on Middle Eastern conflicts. After backlash over a “Hezbollah” betting market, Polymarket removed the label—but kept related categories like “Lebanon” and “Middle East.” Buterin argued the platform should be seen less as a gambling den and more like a live news channel: “From the perspective of traders, it’s a betting site, but from the perspective of viewers, it’s a news site.”
He clarified that he opposes prediction markets with malicious incentives—such as assassination markets—but sees value in punishing both “unjustified fearmongering and unjustified complacency.”
‘Betting on war like it’s a football game‘
Still, others are uneasy. Zach Rynes, a Chainlink community liaison, questioned the broader implications: “Does everything need to be financialised? Is there a limit to what people should be able to bet on?” He noted that sufficiently liquid markets on “influenceable” events could start to “incentivise action or subsidise the inevitable.”
In other words, what starts as a forecast could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
“It feels wrong that Polymarket has an entire Hezbollah betting section—it makes war look like a football game to bet on,” states one commenter on X (formerly Twitter). Another responds: “I’m on their side in this one. If you live in a world where you don’t trust the media or are in a controlled state, it’s helpful to see the ‘true’ odds of these types of events happening.”
I'm on their side in this one – I do see the value
— TylerD 🧙♂️ (@Tyler_Did_It)
If you're in a world where you don't trust the media or live in a controlled state, it's helpful to see the
"true" odds on these types of events happening
like there have been times where X made it seem like China was on the…
Regulators push back
Some U.S. regulators have been pushing to outlaw political betting, arguing that it poses risks to public integrity and could open the door to manipulation. In other parts of the world, authorities have taken a firmer stance—France, for instance, has simply blocked access to prediction platforms like Polymarket altogether.
War as a wager
As the lines between data, news, and gambling continue to blur, the moral tension within platforms like Polymarket only grows. The company insists that it speaks directly with those affected by events, claiming their markets help answer difficult questions that “TV and social media could not.” But whether this is a service or an exploitation remains fiercely debated.
